The level of talent at the top can truly make a draft special and the 2023 NHL Entry Draft looks to have all the potential to be one. With a generational talent in Connor Bedard and the likes of Fantilli, Michkov, and Carlsson following behind, it is going to be a fun one to watch. While a strong draft year gives teams a better chance at hitting the dartboard and finding a player, utilizing both scouting and analytics in making their decisions is key. Simply relying on one or the other will leave one lacking in their decision making. With my draft rankings, I utilize a model using historical results of previous drafts combined with over twenty-five public draft rankings to create a value score for each player. For a more in-depth breakdown of how the model works, take a gander at my 2021 NHL Entry Draft Rankings. For now, I will just be posting my rankings, but keep coming back as I plan to add some comments in the future leading up to the draft.
1-32
33-64
65-96
97-100
Generational Talent
Is Connor Bedard a generational talent or is he a step below? To investigate that notion, I looked at both era adjusted points per game (calculated using the same method utilized at hockey-reference.com) as well as my own statisical tool called NHLP, which projects a draft pick’s career season in the NHL based on their production and age in their first eligible draft season.
Era Adjusted CHL Pts/GP for 1st Overall Selections (1981-2023)
Bedard sits with the 4th best era adjusted CHL Points/GP in the last 43 years. The only players above him are three generational talents in Crosby, Mario and McDavid, while the only other player with a Pts/GP above 2 is Pat Kane, who was the NHL leading scorer of the 2010s. Too say he is in good company would be an understatement. In terms of goals, which is Bedard’s bread and butter, he sits 2nd only behind Mario.
Arrows are pointing towards Bedard being a generational talent, but there is still some uncertainty based on era adjusted production, which utilizing NHLP may alleviate. This is because NHLP takes into more factors such as age, % contribution to team scoring, and power play production. Between 1998 to 2023, this is the top 10 NHLP scores for draft eligible CHL forwards:
When factoring in these other factors, Connor Bedard’s 2023 season is even more impressive than that of McDavid. He carried a weaker team on his back, while being one of the younger players in the draft, which propels his NHLP into the same conversation as Crosby. The gap also widens between Pat Kane and the three players above him on the list and this is due to powerplay production not being as valuable to future NHL point potential than even strength scoring. Pat Kane was a PP wizard in 2007 with over half of his points coming with the man advantage.
In conclusion, Connor Bedard is absolutely a generational talent. He just had the best goal scoring season in CHL history since the Magnificent Mario and had offensive production for his age that rivals Sidney Crosby. His only three comparables are legitimate generational talents in Crosby, McDavid and Mario. The hype is real.
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