ANALYZING D-MEN: TOP 10 PICKS 1998 – 2014

The main focus lately of this blog has been on the offensive projection of forwards, but now we will switch the focus back to defenseman today. For defenseman, there is no NHLP formula to project offensive upside, due to the fact the correlation between CHL and NHL points is not strong enough. Instead, the most useful information gleamed from my sample of defenseman, is that their even strength production is roughly twice as important as their power play scoring. Therefore, for evaluating d-men, I have decided to take the sample and use the ratio of the average point per game in juniors versus that in the NHL. Once again I have separated power play from non power play scoring. The results are:

	Non-PP Points	PP Points
NHL Pts/Game	0.2684	0.1552
CHL Pts/Game	0.2675	0.2667
	100.34%	58.19%

While at the CHL level, players see about an even amount of power play scoring to that of non-power play scoring. However, at the NHL level there is a drop off in their power play production. One assumption, on the decrease in power play scoring, is that players who become 3^rd pairing d-men in the NHL would have likely been top defenseman as junior players. If that is the case and they had the time on ice stats available in the CHL, we could compare whether average power play time is down when comparing CHL to NHL. Now to use the 2014 1^st overall pick Aaron Ekblad as an example; his results would be for offensive potential using the ratio above:

	Goals	Assists	Points
Non-PP Points	9.82	20.88	30.70
PP Points	12.11	12.11	24.21
	21.93	32.98	54.92

These results are less to give a projection of future offensive potential but more to correct for inflated CHL point totals due to power play scoring. D-men tend to put up a larger portion of their scoring on the PP than forwards and you do not want to overrate the power play wizards. With that in mind, we will take a look at all CHL d-men taken in the top 10 in the NHL entry draft between 1998 and 2014. The results are:

1-3 OVERALL

JAY BOUWMEESTER	6.04	214	2002	3	11.44	51.58	63.01
ZACH BOGOSIAN	6.02	200	2008	3	10.73	50.07	60.81
BRAD STUART	6.02	216	1998	3	17.82	39.11	56.92
AARON EKBLAD	6.04	217	2014	1	21.93	32.98	54.92
CAM BARKER	6.03	210	2004	3	17.14	36.57	53.71
DREW DOUGHTY	6.00	213	2008	2	14.28	36.27	50.55
RYAN MURRAY	6.01	195	2012	2	18.36	27.74	46.11
ERIK GUDBRANSON	6.04	217	2010	3	4.42	37.98	42.41

– Bouwmeester was the only d-men other than Ekblad that had a legitimate shot at 1^st overall in their draft year.

– Bogosian had an amazing draft year and outplayed Doughty but has not lived up to his expectations yet.

– Barker was the best of the bunch left after two superstars in Ovechkin/Malkin were gone. He was a talented junior player but it takes more than talent to be a good pro.

– Doughty did not have the best draft year, after starting the year as the frontrunner over Stamkos. Conditioning and weight problems led to him being nicknamed Drew Dough-y for a reason.

-Murray and Gudbranson are the only players not to project over 50 points. In many draft years, they are probably not top 3 picks.

4-5 OVERALL

ALEX PIETRANGELO	6.04	210	2008	4	18.25	44.90	63.15
SETH JONES	6.04	206	2013	4	16.54	43.32	59.86
MORGAN RIELLY	6.00	210	2012	5	10.73	47.86	58.59
KARL ALZNER	6.02	209	2007	5	6.16	37.72	43.88
ROSTISLAV KLESLA	6.02	200	2000	4	15.37	28.13	43.50
THOMAS HICKEY	5.11	182	2007	4	9.45	30.10	39.55
GRIFFIN REINHART	6.04	202	2012	4	12.55	24.56	37.11
LUKE SCHENN	6.02	211	2008	5	10.49	21.78	32.03
BRYAN ALLEN	6.04	217	1998	4	7.36	20.12	27.48

– Pietrangelo put up better numbers than Bogosian and Doughty did in 2008 and could easily be a top 3 pick in many draft years. The same case could be made for Seth Jones, who was considered a 1^st overall choice for some scouts.

– Hickey taken at 4^th overall did not make sense to me in 2007 and makes even less sense today. Hickey is a player that should have been taken outside the top 10.

– Reinhart/Schenn/Allen are all big shut down d-men who project to less than 40 points. I think a strong argument could be made they should not have been top 5 picks.

6-8 OVERALL

MATHEW DUMBA	6.00	182	2012	7	19.34	38.61	57.95
DERRICK POULIOT	6.00	203	2012	8	9.68	40.66	50.34
DARNELL NURSE	6.04	205	2013	7	13.52	30.91	44.43
HAYDN FLEURY	6.03	198	2014	7	7.32	35.76	43.08
BRAYDON COBURN	6.05	224	2003	8	7.68	13.79	21.47

– Dumba and Reilly have similar stats, size and upside and both were solid picks for where they were taken.

– Nurse and Fleury project similarly to that of Alzner and Klesla and would be legitimate top 5 picks in weaker draft years. Nurse was and is a solid pick at #7.

– Coburn by far is the weakest offensive player of the bunch. However, one must remember how much has changed in what is valued in a d-man between 2003 and today’s game.

9-10 OVERALL

DOUGIE HAMILTON	6.05	205	2011	9	11.13	48.25	59.38
SLATER KOEKKOEK	6.02	188	2012	10	14.49	31.83	46.33
DION PHANEUF	6.02	200	2003	9	16.82	15.07	31.89
DYLAN MCILRATH	6.05	215	2010	10	8.00	20.09	28.09
JARED COWEN	6.05	220	2009	9	9.84	17.52	27.36
LUC BOURDON	6.03	215	2005	10	11.33	15.42	26.75
BRANISLAV MEZEI	6.03	210	1999	10	4.39	22.32	26.71
KEATON ELLERBY	6.04	188	2007	10	2.43	19.18	21.62
BORIS VALABIK	6.06	229	2004	10	2.43	14.65	17.09

– Dougie Hamilton sticks out lick a sore thumb as a player that should have been taken earlier. His stats and size suggest he should have been at least a top 5 pick like Jones and Pietrangelo than at 9th.

– Phaneuf was a big physical d-men but still offensively raw in 2003. He has exceeded expectations, when it comes to his offensive game, and was a great pick at 9^th overall.

– Typically, there have been mainly big physical defenders taken in the 9^th and 10^th pick. When you look at players like McIlrath, Mezei, Ellerby and Valabik it may be best to pass on using a top 10 pick on d-men with limited offensive upside. There are always exceptions to the rule but I would be wary.