RETHINKING HOW TO DRAFT GOALIES

When it comes to goalies, it can seem that you are better off putting names on a wall and throwing a dart at the board than actually scouting. However, that does not need to be the case and to better understand the future we need to look at the past to find new information. Without new and better information, an individual will continue to have the same thoughts and ideas, which will leave them apt to make the same mistakes time and time again. I have a feeling many scouts do not change their point of view when evaluating players and continue to draft the same type of players year after year. With that in mind, what new information can we gather from goaltenders? To do this, I looked at first year draft eligible goalies from the CHL that have had some success at the NHL level. For this, I have defined success at the NHL level as 50 games played and have chosen goalies selected between 1998 and 2006.

TOP CHL DRAFTED GOALIES (1998-2006)

Between 1998 and 2006, there were 33 first year draft eligible goalies from the CHL that were taken with a pick between 1^st and 77^th overall. This is the list of goalies and games played:

1	Marc-Andre Fleury	595
5	Carey Price	435
6	Brian Finley	4
8	Pascal Leclaire	173
9	Brent Krahn	1
10	Dan Blackburn	63
11	Jonathan Bernier	175
14	Patrick DesRochers	11
14	Devan Dubnyk	231
15	Mathieu Chouinard	1
22	Maxime Ouellet	12
25	Cam Ward	512
26	Leland Irving	13
29	Adam Munro	17
31	Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers	62
32	Tyler Plante	0
37	David Shantz	0
38	Philippe Sauve	32
38	Josh Harding	151
38	Justin Peters	80
40	Alex Auld	237
48	Simon Lajeunesse	1
49	Jomar Cruz	0
52	Corey Crawford	268
59	Maxime Daigneault	0
59	Pier-Olivier Pelletier	0
63	Peter Budaj	296
65	Kristofer Westblom	0
66	Jason Labarbera	187
69	Jamie Hodson	0
69	Steve Mason	351
74	Todd Ford	0
77	Craig Anderson	406

If we look at this list:

– 16 of 33 goalies went on to play 50+ NHL games (48.5%).

– 13 of the 33 goalies played 100+ NHL games (39.4%)

– 9 of the 33 goalies played 200+ NHL games (27.3%)

These numbers were quite surprising for me, as I thought the % of goalies with over 50 games played would be considerably less. Scott Cullen took a look at goalies drafted in the top 30 picks and 50% had over 100 games played, but I do not like using the same amount of games played for goalies as forwards/d-men since goalies have to share the load. Now if we compare the success rates of goalies taken in the top 30 with 50+ games played vs. that of forwards/d-men with 100+ games played these are the results:

	Forwards(%)	D-Men(%)	Goalies(%)
1-30	73.5	70.6	50.0

Taking a goalie with a 1^st round pick is not advantageous and should only be done in special circumstances (Price, Fleury, Bernier) as 6 of the 7 goalies that went on to play 50+ games were taken in the top 14 picks. Otherwise, it is best to wait till the 2^nd or early 3^rd round as this is when goalies become of value.

	Players(%)	Goalies(%)
31-60	34.0
61-90	29.3
31-77		47.4

With this new information, I can adjust my views as using a top 100 pick on a goalie is not as risky as I once believed. Between the 31^st and 77^th pick, it is actually a safer bet to take one of the top goalies than a forward or d-man, so if you are in the market for a goalie this is when to strike. If we average it over 9 years, generally 4 CHL goalies are taken before the top 80 with 2 of them being successful picks.

THE REST

So if the scouts are generally successful at picking the top goalies in the draft, how do they do when it comes to picks from 80 down?

80	Jean-Francois Laniel	0
80	Michael Garnett	24
82	Ryan Munce	0
84	Jake McCracken	0
89	Jeff Glass	0
90	Jean-Francois Racine	0
90	Justin Pogge	7
92	Cory Campbell	0
93	Dan LaCosta	4
96	Jonathan Boutin	0
99	Rob Zepp	10
99	Ray Emery	287
99	James Reimer	175
108	Dany Sabourin	57
111	Ghyslain Rousseau	0
114	Alexandre Vincent	0
119	Jeremy Duchesne	1
120	Davis Parley	0
121	Drew MacIntyre	6
126	Kevin Nastiuk	0
128	Kevin Lalande	0
129	Jason Churchill	0
133	Jean-Francois Nogues	0
133	Bryan Pitton	0
135	Andrew Raycroft	280
136	Billy Thompson	0
139	Kyle Moir	0
140	David Tremblay	0
143	Daren Machesney	0
145	Robert Gherson	0
147	Seamus Kotyk	0
151	Ryan Daniels	0
153	Mike Brown	0
160	Daniel Manzato	0
161	Mike Smith	387
164	Tyler Weiman	1
165	Mike Leighton	105
165	Kevin Beech	0
166	Jonathan Pelletier	0
166	Andy Chiodo	8
166	Logan Koopmans	0
169	Shane Bendera	0
175	Cam Ondrik	0
175	Michael Dupont	0
179	Donald Choukalos	0
181	Daniel Boisclair	0
181	Loic Lacasse	0
189	Julien Ellis	0
191	Rejean Beauchemin	0
195	Nick Pannoni	0
197	Jean-Philippe Levasseur	0
205	Kyle Kettles	0
209	Frederik Brind’Amour	0
210	Steve Belanger	0
213	Jan Chovan	0
219	Tyson Kellerman	0
220	Brad Topping	0
221	Aaron Molnar	0
221	Daniel Taylor	3
224	Gerald Coleman	2
227	Jonathan Charron	0
235	Jeff Weber	0
264	Matthew Davis	0
265	Dwight LaBrosse	0
285	Blake Ward	0

When it comes to drafting goalies from the 80^th spot and later in the draft, the scouts crashed and burned.

– 6 of 65 goalies (9.2%) went on to play 50+ NHL games.

– 5 of the 65 goalies played 100+ NHL games (7.7%)

– 3 of the 65 goalies played 200+ NHL games (4.6%)

These numbers just dropped off the map, as a team is over 5X more likely to get a successful goalie if they pick one before the 80^th pick than after. If we look at goalies taken in the 5^th round or later, there were only 3 successful goalies in 9 years. To put it in perspective, a 9.2% success rate for a player is what we expect for a 7^th round pick. With this knowledge in hand, it seems like a crazy idea to use a late round pick on a CHL goalie. Therefore, the theory of waiting and not using an early draft pick on a goalie is contrary to what history tells us. History shows that CHL scouts are good at their jobs for identifying the best CHL goalies in the draft. Therefore, if you take one of the goalies that are a consensus top 75 pick, you have a 50/50 chance of getting a decent one. For this year, Mackenzie Blackwood is the only goalie that is a consensus top 75 pick. Meanwhile, Callum Booth and Samuel Montembeault are sometimes seen as a top 75 pick, with Booth the likeliest goalie to join Blackwood in that group.

TOP EUROPEAN DRAFTED GOALIES (1998-2006)

Now let us go across the pond to see if it is also a good idea to take European goalies with a high draft pick (first 3 rounds). Between 1998 and 2006, there were 11 first year draft eligible goalies, from Europe, that were taken with a top 50 picks. This is the list of goalies and games played:

2	Kari Lehtonen	510
15	Riku Helenius	1
17	Marek Schwarz	6
21	Tuukka Rask	266
23	Semyon Varlamov	267
27	Ari Ahonen	0
29	Hannu Toivonen	61
34	Tobias Stephan	11
34	Michal Neuvirth	168
41	Ondrej Pavelec	338
46	Jhonas Enroth	131

If we look at this list:

– 7 of 11 goalies (63.6%) went on to play 50+ NHL games.

– 6 of the 11 goalies played 100+ NHL games (54.5%)

– 4 of the 11 goalies played 200+ NHL games (36.4%)

Once again, we see that scouts do a good job at selecting the top end goalies, which further enforces the point that the top goalies need to be picked up before it is too late. Therefore, if you want to draft Ilya Samsonov, a team will have to be prepared to use a top 50 pick.

THE REST

When we look at the rest of the European goalies, there was a noticeable difference when it comes to the later selections. These are the list of goalies taken outside the top 50:

56	Andrei Medvedev	0
67	Evgeny Konstantinov	2
76	Alexei Volkov	0
79	Johan Asplund	0
83	Lukas Mensator	0
84	Peter Hamerlik	0
89	Tuomas Nissinen	0
94	Thomas Greiss	89
107	Dmitri Patzold	3
109	Jakub Kovar	0
113	Kristian Antila	0
132	Niko Hovinen	0
137	Magnus Akerlund	0
139	Patrick Ehelechner	0
144	Eero Kilpelainen	0
145	Michal Valent	0
148	Michal Lanicek	0
168	Antero Niittymaki	234
173	Stefan Ridderwall	0
177	Christopher Heino-Lindberg	0
191	Karri Ramo	122
193	Rastislav Stana	6
193	Ville Hostikka	0
196	Mikael Vuorio	0
205	Henrik Lundqvist	620
206	Anton Khudobin	91
211	Vladimir Kulikov	0
237	Antti Jokela	0
243	Joni Puurula	0
271	Jaroslav Halak	331

– 6 of 30 goalies went on to play 50+ NHL games (20.0%).

– 4 of the 30 goalies played 100+ NHL games (13.3%)

– 3 of the 30 goalies played 200+ NHL games (10.0%)

When you compare the numbers between European goalies and CHL goalies, you had double the chance of getting a successful goalie if you take the European goalie. Out of the 6 Euro goalies, with 50+ NHL games, only 1 of them was taken before the 6^th round (Greiss). If this trend has continued, taking a flyer on a Euro goalie with a 6^th or 7^th round choice would be wise, since 20% odds is a very good deal for a late draft pick considering 19.3% of 4^th round players hit 100 games while it is 14.7% for a 5^th round pick and 15.5% for a 6^th round choice. Whether this trend has continued or teams have become better at scouting European goalies if up for debate and needs to be researched. My gut is telling me that European goalies are still under scouted and that is where the diamonds in the rough are to be found. Here are my top diamonds in the rough that did not crack Central Scouting top 10 International goalies:

Erik Kallgren – 6’2 goalie led the Superelit J20 with a 1.75 GAA and a .936 SA%. One of his backups was the #5 ranked goalie Van Pottleberghe who had a .892 SA% in 5 games.

Andreas Kaberg – The backup for the #8 ranked goalie, Adam Werner. Kaberg is a 6’2 goalie that was 6^th in the Superelit J20 league with a .920 SA% (Werner is .906).

John Morelius – split time in Brynas with the #3 ranked goalie Sandstrom and put up similar SA% (Sandstrom – .907, Morelius – .906).

Markus Ruusu – split time with the #4 ranked goalie Vehvilainen in the Jr. A SM-liiga. Both goalies had the same .918 SA%.

Jan Ruzicka – 6’1 goalie that was 2^nd in the Czech U20 junior league with a .931 SA%.

Ivan Fedotov – 6’5 goalie that had a .911 SA% in the MHL. While only 19^th in the league in SA% (minimum 15 GP), Fedotov carried his team as his two main backups had a SA% of .857 and .853.

WHAT DID WE LEARN

What we have learned is that the best method of drafting goalies is to stay away from using a first round pick on a goalie (unless it is an exceptional goalie) as the odds are significantly better if you draft a forward or d-men over a goalie (over 40% better). Instead, the best time to draft one of the top rated goalies from North America or Europe is to grab them in the 2^nd or early 3^rd round. Goalies in this range tend to out perform the forwards and d-men by 50% and if you wait to long all the good goalies will be gone. If a team wants to take a shot on a goalie in the late rounds, it is better to take a European goalie as history shows they are twice as likely at becoming a successful NHL goalie as their North American counterparts. By doing this a team will give itself the best chance of getting a successful goalie.

That means for the 2015 draft, Blackwood is a name that should be on everyone’s top 100 rankings and is a likely choice for the 2nd round. As for other North American goalies, Callum Booth receives the most consideration as satisfying being a top 80 pick and is a likely third round choice. For European goalies, Samsonov is a consensus top 50 pick and is the likeliest to be the first goalie taken in the draft. Meanwhile, there are no other European goalies considered a consensus top 50 pick but there is a 6’5 Czech goalie named Daniel Vladar who is considered the 2nd best European goalie and has more impressive numbers than Blackwood, Booth or Samsonov. Here is the breakdown of goalies based on height, weight, SA%, SA%(W/O) which is the combined SA% of the other goalies on the team, league rank for SA% (minimum 30 GP for CHL goalies, minimum 15GP for European goalies)

NAME	HT	WT	SA%	SA%(W/O)	+/-	LEAGUE RANK
Mackenzie Blackwood	6.04	215	0.906	0.893	0.13	9th
Callum Booth	6.03	199	0.900	0.888	0.12	7th
Ilya Samsonov	6.03	200	0.918	0.919	-0.01	10th
Daniel Vladar	6.05	185	0.926	0.904	0.22	6th

• All the goalies are top 10 in their leagues in SA%. These goalies are ahead of their peers.
• The numbers between Blackwood and Booth are not far apart. Blackwood has the edge in pedigree. For 1^st year draft eligible starting goalies, Blackwood and Booth are both 1^st in SA% from their respective leagues (minimum 30 GP).
• Samsonov played backup to a 19 yr old Zagidulin who had a strong .919 SA%. His play on the international scene is what put Samsonov on the map. For first year draft eligible goalies with 15 games played, Samsonov is 2^nd in the MHL behind 5’10 Anton Krasotkin, who had a .924 SA%.
• Vladar is 6’5 and had a .926 SA% while the other goalies on his team had a combined .904 SA%. The difference is 0.22, which the biggest gap of the 4 goalies. For first year draft eligible goalies with 15 games played in the Czech U20 league, Vladar is 2^nd behind the aforementioned Jan Ruzicka.