2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 2)

In Part II, we will look at the WHL forwards that project to have 45-50 point potential. For Part II, I have added the breakdown for percentage of picks from each round. Since the number of picks in a round varies over the years, I consider selections 1-30 as a 1^st rounder, 31-60 as a 2^nd, 61-90 as a 3^rd and so on. The criteria for comparable players remain the same:

• NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
• Height within +/- 1 inch
• For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
• For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.

When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:

• Players who played 100+ NHL Games
• Players who have played less than 100 NHL Games and who became first draft eligible in 2008 or before.
• Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
RYAN GROPP	LW	L	6.02	187
NHLP	G	A	P
	24.28	23.64	47.92

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
N SPALING	6.01	183	58	19.02	29.16	48.18
MARCEL HOSSA	6.01	200	16	22.22	25.43	47.65
D KING	6.03	220	109	12.72	34.77	47.49
BJ CROMBEEN	6.02	212	54	23.15	23.78	46.93

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
M BERNIER	6.03	218	60	23.03	25.90	48.92
B NOLAN	6.01	190	72	19.25	29.54	48.79
C STILLMAN	6.02	211	101	25.86	22.55	48.41
R STONE	6.01	203	32	16.99	30.49	47.48
C BURKI	6.01	195	59	20.64	26.77	47.41
J KLEPIS	6.01	200	16	11.04	36.08	47.12
I POHANKA	6.03	199	44	15.74	31.29	47.03
M LAMBERT	6.02	200	99	24.65	22.20	46.85

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
A YOGAN	6.03	200	100	22.13	26.97	49.10
J HOUCK	6.01	195	94	19.41	29.35	48.76
J MAIDENS	6.01	179	82	25.14	23.60	48.75
H SAMUELSSON	6.03	208	27	14.44	34.29	48.73
B POLLOCK	6.02	182	45	23.58	24.80	48.38
L LESSIO	6.01	202	56	24.22	24.01	48.24
M CHAPUT	6.01	188	89	23.60	24.48	48.08
J KIRKLAND	6.02	175	62	18.12	29.90	48.02
J MCFARLAND	6.01	205	33	20.48	27.22	47.70
R BUSSIERES	6.01	195	46	22.66	25.01	47.67
N BAPTISTE	6.01	190	69	21.12	26.53	47.66
J DICKINSON	6.02	191	29	18.17	28.95	47.12
C VERHAEGHE	6.02	185	82	19.60	27.49	47.08
D SMITH	6.02	205	34	22.68	24.13	46.81

 Average Pick: 60.3

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 4/26 (15.4%)

2nd Round Picks: 11/26 (42.3%)

3rd Round Picks: 6/26 (23.1%)

4th Round Picks: 5/26 (19.2%)

With 42.3% of comparables being 2^nd round picks, that is the likeliest round for a player with Gropp’s size and stats to be taken. Successful players taken in the 2^nd round include Spaling and Crombeen. The players in Gropp’s range have good size but most lack the skill to be considered top 6 forwards.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
GIORGIO ESTEPHAN	C	R	6.00	188
NHLP	G	A	P
	20.86	26.52	47.38

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
N SPALING	6.01	183	58	19.02	29.16	48.18
P PARENTEAU	5.11	180	264	19.21	28.61	47.82
MARCEL HOSSA	6.01	200	16	22.22	25.43	47.65
M FISHER	6.00	190	44	23.26	23.82	47.08
D TYRELL	5.11	180	47	21.54	24.72	46.26

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
R HOWSE	5.11	185	74	30.56	17.37	47.94
R STONE	6.01	203	32	16.99	30.49	47.48
C BURKI	6.01	195	59	20.64	26.77	47.41
J KLEPIS	6.01	200	16	11.04	36.08	47.12
R HILLIER	6.00	198	84	16.73	29.69	46.42

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
K SUNDHER	6.00	177	75	20.79	27.63	48.42
L LESSIO	6.01	202	56	24.22	24.01	48.24
J SZWARZ	6.00	189	97	15.29	32.80	48.08
C STEPHENSON	5.11	190	77	25.05	23.03	48.08
M CHAPUT	6.01	188	89	23.60	24.48	48.08
T BOURKE	5.11	176	72	16.15	31.88	48.04
Y LAPLANTE	6.00	183	62	20.55	27.39	47.94
J MCFARLAND	6.01	205	33	20.48	27.22	47.70
R BUSSIERES	6.01	195	46	22.66	25.01	47.67
N BAPTISTE	6.01	190	69	21.12	26.53	47.66
N AUBE-KUBEL	5.11	195	48	19.12	28.50	47.61
M WINTHER	6.00	200	54	24.45	22.03	46.48
A QUINE	5.11	195	85	22.62	23.80	46.42

Average Pick: 67.7

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 2/23 (8.7%)

2nd Round Picks: 10/23 (43.5%)

3rd Round Picks: 9/23 (39.1%)

4th Round Picks: 2/23 (8.7%)

With 19 of 23 players being taken in the 2^nd and 3^rd round, there is a high probability that Estephan is taken in one of these two rounds. His numbers shot up dramatically, from a NHLP of 28.66 points, before the firing of Drake Berehowsky, to a NHLP of 57.88 in the final 41 games of the season. A strong argument could be made that these comparables are not the correct ones for Estephan.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
BRAYDEN BURKE	C	L	5.10	155
NHLP	G	A	P
	12.41	34.78	47.19

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
P PARENTEAU	5.11	180	264	19.21	28.61	47.82
J TOOTOO	5.09	182	98	21.24	26.57	47.81
K VERSTEEG	5.10	173	134	15.49	31.33	46.82
D TYRELL	5.11	180	47	21.54	24.72	46.26

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
R HOWSE	5.11	185	74	30.56	17.37	47.94

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
C STEPHENSON	5.11	190	77	25.05	23.03	48.08
T BOURKE	5.11	176	72	16.15	31.88	48.04
N AUBE-KUBEL	5.11	195	48	19.12	28.50	47.61
A QUINE	5.11	195	85	22.62	23.80	46.42

Average Pick: 99.9

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 0/9 (0.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 2/9 (22.2%)

3rd Round Picks: 4/9 (44.4%)

4th Round Picks: 1/9 (11.1%)

5th Round Picks: 1/9 (11.1%)

9th Round Picks: 1/9 (11.1%)

With players of Burke’s size and skill, there are not many drafted in the first place, as I only found 9 comparable players out of over 500+ players. The ones that were selected were most commonly taken as 3^rd round picks. However, these players are also typically 20-40 lbs heavier than Burke, making him a long shot for a top 100 pick.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
BRAD MORRISON	C	L	6.00	154
NHLP	G	A	P
	20.95	25.48	46.43

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
M FISHER	6.00	190	44	23.26	23.82	47.08
K VERSTEEG	5.10	173	134	15.49	31.33	46.82
D TYRELL	5.11	180	47	21.54	24.72	46.26
T KENNEDY	6.01	200	99	17.01	29.17	46.18
G CAMPBELL	6.00	192	67	13.67	32.41	46.08
D BOWMAN	6.01	185	72	20.89	25.15	46.03
B GORDON	6.00	195	17	20.57	25.40	45.97
J MCCLEMENT	6.01	191	57	27.63	18.20	45.83
E CHRISTENSEN	6.00	190	69	16.71	29.06	45.77
Ph DUPUIS	6.00	195	104	19.33	26.43	45.76

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
R STONE	6.01	203	32	16.99	30.49	47.48
C BURKI	6.01	195	59	20.64	26.77	47.41
J KLEPIS	6.01	200	16	11.04	36.08	47.12
R HILLIER	6.00	198	84	16.73	29.69	46.42
D PAQUETTE	6.01	206	64	30.91	15.27	46.18
T HORNUNG	6.00	200	59	23.27	22.53	45.80

DRAFTED 2009-2014

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
M WINTHER	6.00	200	54	24.45	22.03	46.48
A QUINE	5.11	195	85	22.62	23.80	46.42
C LAZAR	6.00	205	17	30.37	15.82	46.19
B VAIL	6.00	198	94	19.37	26.56	45.93
L SUTTER	6.01	214	39	21.09	24.66	45.75

 Average Pick: 62.5

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 3/21 (14.3%)

2nd Round Picks: 8/21 (38.1%)

3rd Round Picks: 6/21 (28.6%)

4th Round Picks: 3/21 (14.3%)

5th Round Picks: 1/21 (4.8%)

For Morrison, 2/3 of the comparable forwards were taken as 2^nd or 3^rd round picks. Working against Morrison, who is a fast skilled player, is the fact that the successful players in his range, are more typically strong two-way players who are 25+ lbs heavier than him (Fisher, Tyrell, Kennedy, Campbell, Bowman, Gordon, McClement, Dupuis).

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
GLENN GAWDIN	C	R	6.01	191
NHLP	G	A	P
	13.73	32.69	46.42

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
M FISHER	6.00	190	44	23.26	23.82	47.08
BJ CROMBEEN	6.02	212	54	23.15	23.78	46.93
J MITCHELL	6.02	197	158	14.72	31.90	46.62
T KENNEDY	6.01	200	99	17.01	29.17	46.18
G CAMPBELL	6.00	192	67	13.67	32.41	46.08
D BOWMAN	6.01	185	72	20.89	25.15	46.03
B GORDON	6.00	195	17	20.57	25.40	45.97
J MCCLEMENT	6.01	191	57	27.63	18.20	45.83
E CHRISTENSEN	6.00	190	69	16.71	29.06	45.77
Ph DUPUIS	6.00	195	104	19.33	26.43	45.76
B SUTHERBY	6.02	174	26	24.11	21.32	45.43

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
R STONE	6.01	203	32	16.99	30.49	47.48
C BURKI	6.01	195	59	20.64	26.77	47.41
J KLEPIS	6.01	200	16	11.04	36.08	47.12
M LAMBERT	6.02	200	99	24.65	22.20	46.85
R HILLIER	6.00	198	84	16.73	29.69	46.42
D PAQUETTE	6.01	206	64	30.91	15.27	46.18
P DAVIS	6.02	211	99	18.77	27.19	45.96
T HORNUNG	6.00	200	59	23.27	22.53	45.80
D ROUSSIN	6.02	198	223	17.20	28.44	45.64
A BOLDUC	6.02	205	127	14.08	31.36	45.44

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
J DICKINSON	6.02	191	29	18.17	28.95	47.12
C VERHAEGHE	6.02	185	82	19.60	27.49	47.08
D SMITH	6.02	205	34	22.68	24.13	46.81
N MAGYAR	6.02	191	93	21.08	25.41	46.49
M WINTHER	6.00	200	54	24.45	22.03	46.48
C LAZAR	6.00	205	17	30.37	15.82	46.19
R KUJAWINSKI	6.02	207	73	17.35	28.73	46.08
B VAIL	6.00	198	94	19.37	26.56	45.93
L SUTTER	6.01	214	39	21.09	24.66	45.75

Average Pick: 71.5

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 5/30 (16.7%)

2nd Round Picks: 9/30 (30.0%)

3rd Round Picks: 7/30 (23.3%)

4th Round Picks: 6/30 (20.0%)

5th Round Picks: 1/30 (3.3%)

6th Round Picks: 1/30 (3.3%)

8th Round Picks: 1/30 (3.3%)

Over half of the comparable players for Gawdin are selected in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds. If we remove the comparable players in the 2009-2014 section, there is a little over half of the players with 100+ NHL games. That is a good rate of return but not many of the players end up as top 6 forwards and are more of the checking 3^rd line variety.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
JESSE GABRIELLE	LW	L	5.11	205
NHLP	G	A	P
	22.75	22.49	45.23

100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
D TYRELL	5.11	180	47	21.54	24.72	46.26
G CAMPBELL	6.00	192	67	13.67	32.41	46.08
B GORDON	6.00	195	17	20.57	25.40	45.97
E CHRISTENSEN	6.00	190	69	16.71	29.06	45.77
PH DUPUIS	6.00	195	104	19.33	26.43	45.76
R WHITE	6.00	213	66	17.41	27.57	44.97
M BELESKEY	6.00	207	112	22.03	22.88	44.90

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
T HORNUNG	6.00	200	59	23.27	22.53	45.80
J LAMMERS	5.11	186	86	20.88	24.21	45.09
J BALEJ	5.11	185	78	22.27	22.17	44.44

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
C LAZAR	6.00	205	17	30.37	15.82	46.19
B VAIL	6.00	198	94	19.37	26.56	45.93
S HODGES	6.00	187	84	18.78	26.32	45.11
M FRK	6.00	203	49	22.30	22.39	44.69

Average Pick: 67.8

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 2/14 (14.3%)

2nd Round Picks: 3/14 (21.4%)

3rd Round Picks: 6/14 (42.9%)

4th Round Picks: 3/14 (21.4%)

Gabrielle has many similar comparable players, that played 100+ NHL games, to that of Brad Morrison (Tyrell, Campbell, Bowman, Gordon, Christensen, Dupuis). The difference between the two players is that Gabrielle’s gritty game falls more in line with that of the comparable players than Morrison’s style of play.