2015 WHL FORWARDS: STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND COMPARABLES (PART 3)

In Part III, we will look at the WHL forwards that project to have 40-45 point potential. As I get more familiar scanning the comparable players and have more time to do so, I am being able to better zero on what round of a pick to use on a player. The criteria for comparable players remain the same:

• NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
• Height within +/- 1 inch
• For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
• For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.

When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:

• Players who played 100+ NHL Games
• Players who have played less than 100 NHL Games and who became first draft eligible in 2008 or before.
• Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
DEVEN SIDEROFF	RW	R	5.11	171
NHLP	G	A	P
	17.99	26.42	44.41

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
RYAN WHITE	6.00	213	66	17.41	27.57	44.97
MATT BELESKEY	6.00	207	112	22.03	22.88	44.90
MATT D’AGOSTINI	6.00	176	190	23.96	20.09	44.05
ADAM HENRIQUE	6.00	196	82	19.07	24.85	43.92
CASEY CIZIKAS	6.00	185	92	21.33	22.53	43.86

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
JOHN LAMMERS	5.11	186	86	20.88	24.21	45.09
JOZEF BALEJ	5.11	185	78	22.27	22.17	44.44
JAMIE ARNIEL	6.00	190	97	28.22	15.37	43.59

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
STEVEN HODGES	6.00	187	84	18.78	26.32	45.11
MARTIN FRK	6.00	203	49	22.30	22.39	44.69
TOBIAS REIDER	5.11	179	114	21.30	22.74	44.04

Average Pick: 95.5

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 0/11 (0.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 1/11 (9.1%)

3rd Round Picks: 5/11 (45.5%)

4th Round Picks: 4/11 (36.4%)

7th Round Picks: 1/11 (9.1%)

With only 11 comparable players, that means if you are of below average height and have less than 45-point potential, there must be something special in your game to be picked in the top 100 or it is a weaker draft year. While comparables for Sideroff are usually a 3^rd or 4^th round pick, in a deep draft like 2015, I would lean to the more conservative side, which is a 4^th round or later pick.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
AUSTIN WAGNER	LW	L	6.01	178
NHLP	G	A	P
	19.65	24.64	44.29

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
RYAN WHITE	6.00	213	66	17.41	27.57	44.97
MATT BELESKEY	6.00	207	112	22.03	22.88	44.90
COLIN FRASER	6.01	175	69	16.98	27.62	44.60
RYANE CLOWE	6.02	190	175	27.94	16.51	44.45
MATT D’AGOSTINI	6.00	176	190	23.96	20.09	44.05
BLAIR JONES	6.02	207	102	13.61	30.32	43.93
ADAM HENRIQUE	6.00	196	82	19.07	24.85	43.92
MICHAEL GRABNER	6.01	177	14	32.12	11.52	43.64

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MATT KEITH	6.02	197	59	19.93	25.14	45.07
LANCE MONYCH	6.02	203	97	18.39	26.46	44.85
HARRISON REED	6.01	175	93	23.87	20.83	44.70
GREG WATSON	6.02	198	34	19.25	25.44	44.68
SPENCER MACHACEK	6.01	182	67	20.10	24.07	44.17
CHRIS DURAND	6.02	194	52	15.94	27.97	43.91
NATHAN SMITH	6.02	185	23	17.28	26.41	43.69
JAMIE ARNIEL	6.00	190	97	28.22	15.37	43.59
CHRIS NIELSEN	6.01	190	36	18.98	24.37	43.35

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
STEVEN HODGES	6.00	187	84	18.78	26.32	45.11
ZACH NASTASIUK	6.02	202	48	21.16	23.80	44.96
MARTIN FRK	6.00	203	49	22.30	22.39	44.69
MAX REINHART	6.01	185	64	18.29	25.68	43.97
PHILIPPE PARADIS	6.02	212	27	16.08	27.80	43.88
TOMAS VINCOUR	6.02	204	129	19.16	24.56	43.73
JOSHUA LEIVO	6.01	191	86	19.17	24.43	43.60
GREG CHASE	6.00	188	188	15.36	27.92	43.28

Average Pick: 81.7

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 3/25 (12.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/25 (24.0%)

3rd Round Picks: 7/25 (28.0%)

4th Round Picks: 5/25 (20.0%)

5th Round Picks: 1/25 (4.0%)

6th Round Picks: 1/25 (4.0%)

7th Round Picks: 2/25 (8.0%)

Comparable 1^st round picks are Grabner, Paradis and Nathan Smith with Grabner, who projected to be a 30-goal scorer, turning out to be the best. More likely Wagner is a 2^nd to 4^th round pick as 76% of the comparable players are in this range. When you remove Grabner from the list of players with 100+ NHL games, they are all 3^rd round picks or worse, which is where a team should target a player like Wagner.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
ANDREW KOEP	C	L	5.08	158
NHLP	G	A	P
	16.33	27.41	43.74

 100+ NHL GAMES

NONE

<100 NHL GAMES

NONE

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NONE

 Average Pick: N/A

Well this is an easy choice. Sorry Andrew Koep but history shows you have no chance of playing in the NHL.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
PAVEL KARNAUKHOV	C	L	6.03	194
NHLP	G	A	P
	19.13	22.98	42.11

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MAXIM LAPIERRE	6.02	205	61	20.40	22.07	42.46
BRYAN BICKELL	6.04	215	41	25.93	15.58	41.51
MICHAEL BLUNDEN	6.04	210	43	21.60	19.86	41.46
ZACK STORTINI	6.04	215	94	18.29	22.89	41.18

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
ZDENEK BLATNY	6.02	190	68	25.63	17.33	42.96
ONDREJ FIALA	6.02	195	40	24.81	17.95	42.76
JOHN ARMSTRONG	6.02	205	87	17.34	24.49	41.83
KRIS VERNARSKY	6.02	207	51	16.66	24.64	41.31
BRYCE SWAN	6.03	198	38	15.98	25.23	41.21
RICK KOZAK	6.02	190	95	23.34	17.69	41.03

DRAFTED 2009-2014

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BRETT BULMER	6.03	193	39	14.32	27.89	42.21

Average Pick: 59.7

Top 10 Picks: 0

1st Round Picks: 0/11 (0.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/11 (54.5%)

3rd Round Picks: 3/11 (27.3%)

4th Round Picks: 2/11 (18.2%)

Typically, if there is a big guy who shows some limited offensive potential, a team is willing to use a 2^nd to 4^th round pick on them. While over half of the comparable players have been 2^nd round choices, I would argue only Bickell has turned into a successful pro. I think an argument could be made that teams over value size in this area and that a 3^rd round or later pick would be better used at this point.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
KEEGAN KOLESAR	RW	R	6.01	217
NHLP	G	A	P
	20.60	21.21	41.81

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MATTHEW LOMBARDI	6.00	190	215	17.45	25.04	42.49
MAXIM LAPIERRE	6.02	205	61	20.40	22.07	42.46
DUSTIN BOYD	6.00	202	98	19.91	21.65	41.56
STEPHANE VEILLEUX	6.01	190	UD	14.36	26.97	41.33

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
ONDREJ FIALA	6.02	195	40	24.81	17.95	42.76
DANIEL BOIS	6.01	208	97	22.70	19.24	41.95
JOHN ARMSTRONG	6.02	205	87	17.34	24.49	41.83
DAN COLLINS	6.01	209	90	23.21	18.61	41.82
JAMES LIVINGSTON	6.01	210	70	20.68	20.97	41.65
JUSTIN MAPLETOFT	6.01	185	130	22.28	19.10	41.38
KRIS VERNARSKY	6.02	207	51	16.66	24.64	41.31
RICK KOZAK	6.02	190	95	23.34	17.69	41.03
RYAN BARNES	6.02	200	55	16.53	24.35	40.88

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
COLE CASSELS	6.00	180	85	15.50	27.34	42.84
COLTON SISSONS	6.01	194	50	26.99	14.80	41.79
KEEGAN IVERSON	6.01	220	85	21.64	19.92	41.55
MIKE AMADIO	6.01	192	90	14.94	26.26	41.21
DYLAN SADOWY	6.01	180	81	30.78	10.34	41.13
CHRIS TIERNEY	6.01	187	55	13.92	26.99	40.90
MATIA MARCANTUONI	6.00	202	92	26.59	14.23	40.82

Average Pick: 85.6

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 0/20 (0.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 5/20 (25.0%)

3rd Round Picks: 8/20 (40.0%)

4th Round Picks: 4/20 (20.0%)

5th Round Picks: 1/20 (5.0%)

8th Round Picks: 1/20 (5.0%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/30 (5.0%)

Kolesar has 17 comparable players taken in the top 100, which means there is a good chance he will also follow suit. While previously there has been no 2^nd round picks with 100+ NHL games, Sissons and Tierney (drafted late 2^nd round in 2012) have seen some games in the NHL. With it being a deep draft, it is better to pick a player like Kolesar in the 3^rd round or later.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
ADAM MUSIL	C	R	6.03	202
NHLP	G	A	P
	15.49	26.08	41.57

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MAXIM LAPIERRE	6.02	205	61	20.40	22.07	42.46
BRYAN BICKELL	6.04	215	41	25.93	15.58	41.51
MICHAEL BLUNDEN	6.04	210	43	21.60	19.86	41.46
ZACK STORTINI	6.04	215	94	18.29	22.89	41.18
JAMES WRIGHT	6.03	200	117	16.11	24.45	40.55

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
JOHN ARMSTRONG	6.02	205	87	17.34	24.49	41.83
KRIS VERNARSKY	6.02	207	51	16.66	24.64	41.31
BRYCE SWAN	6.03	198	38	15.98	25.23	41.21
RICK KOZAK	6.02	190	95	23.34	17.69	41.03
RYAN BARNES	6.02	200	55	16.53	24.35	40.88
OSKAR OSALA	6.04	220	97	17.57	23.22	40.79

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BRETT BULMER	6.03	193	39	14.32	27.89	42.21
CURTIS HAMILTON	6.03	206	48	19.12	21.64	40.77

Average Pick: 66.6

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 0/13 (0.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 7/13 (53.8%)

3rd Round Picks: 2/13 (15.4%)

4th Round Picks: 4/13 (30.8%)

Take what I said about Karnaukhov and copy, cut and paste and you can say the same things about Musil. While being best taken in the 3^rd round or later, the odds say that a team likely will overvalue Musil’s size and take him a round too early.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
BRAYLON SHMYR	LW	L	5.09	163
NHLP	G	A	P
	20.58	20.87	41.44

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
TYLER JOHNSON	5.09	175	UD	17.1	23.7	40.8

<100 NHL GAMES

NONE

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NONE

 Average Pick: N/A

That is one hell of a comparable but Tyler Johnson is the anomaly and not the rule. Like Koep, I would not recommend using a pick on Shmyr.

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
WYATT SLOBOSHAN	C	L	5.10	179
NHLP	G	A	P
	14.89	26.53	41.42

 100+ NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
TYLER JOHNSON	5.09	175	UD	17.12	23.72	40.83
MATT HALISCHUK	5.11	177	UD	17.25	23.49	40.74

<100 NHL GAMES

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
KRIS NEWBURY	5.11	192	UD	12.19	29.67	41.85

DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NONE

Average Pick: N/A

For Sloboshan, there is a little more hope in becoming a NHL player than for Koep or Shmyr, but not much. With a player like Sloboshan, he is likely to be undrafted and it will be up to him to prove next year that he is worth a pick.

CONCLUSION

Since I will be doing a top 100 ranking, for a player to make the cut, they need to project to be worth using at least a 3^rd round pick. Of course, there are always exceptions to the rules but those factors come more into play after pouring over the draft guides. In the case of the players that project to have 40-45 point potential, they are Wagner, Karnaukhov, Kolesar and Musil. For now, all four players should be taken in the 3^rd round or later.