ANALYZING THE 2015 NHL DRAFT: OHL FORWARDS PART I

One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL player’s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. I have prorated the numbers over an 82 game season. In Part I, we will look at the OHL forwards that project to have 50+ point potential in their best NHL season. We will than look at the players that are the most statistically comparable from past draft years. I have gone back and applied the NHLP formula to over 500+ players since the 1998 draft so there is just a couple to choose from. The criteria for comparable players remain the same as in my 2015 WHL forward projections. The comparable players will have an:

• NHLP within +/- 2.5 %
• Height within +/- 1 inch
• For players 6’4+, the range of height for comparables will be any players over 6’2 due to lack of comparables.
• For players 5’9 and shorter it will be any player less than 5’10.
• For McDavid and Marner, due to the fact that have limited comparable players, I have adjusted the allowance for NHLP to +/- 10.0%.
• For Strome, his stats are broken down into with and without McDavid in the lineup. The comparable players are combined into one group for Strome.

When comparing, I have broken the players into three categories:

• Players who played 100+ NHL Games
• Players whose first draft eligible year is 2008 or previous and they have yet to play in 100 NHL games.
• Players drafted between 2009 and 2014 who have not yet reached 100 games. For these players it is too early to call which of the first two categories they will fall into in the future.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
CONNOR MCDAVID	C	L	6.01	195
NHLP	G	A	P
	41.38	61.25	102.63

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
SIDNEY CROSBY	5.11	190	1	45.50	64.42	109.92

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

None

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

None

Average Pick: 1

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 1/1 (100.0%)

With over 500 comparable players and 17 draft years, there is only one player that is a statistical comparable for Connor McDavid and that player is Sidney Crosby. Crosby and McDavid are the only two players that project to have a 100+ point NHL season and are the only two players you could call generational players.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
MITCHELL MARNER	C	R	5.11	160
NHLP	G	A	P
	33.97	53.85	87.82

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
PATRICK KANE	5.11	181	1	41.64	53.11	94.75
SAM GAGNER	5.11	202	6	26.86	64.93	91.79
PIERRE-MARC BOUCHARD	5.11	180	8	29.10	57.26	86.36
NATHAN MACKINNON	5.11	179	1	32.86	49.63	82.50
KYLE WELLWOOD	5.11	190	134	23.00	56.51	79.51

<100 NHL GAMES

None

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
JONATHAN DROUIN	5.11	192	3	36.99	53.24	90.22

Average Pick: 25.5

Top 10 Picks: 5

1^st Round Picks: 5/6 (83.3%)

5^th Round Picks: 1/6 (16.7%)

With Marner, there are so few comparables even when I expand the NHLP to +/- 10%. Of the comparable players, 5 of the 6 were taken in the top 10 but have had varying degrees of success. Pat Kane is a superstar while Gagner and Bouchard have gone on to being just secondary scoring options. With MacKinnon and Drouin, they are just beginning their NHL journeys but there is a lot of promise. When you look at the six players, I suspect skating to be the big separator between whether a talented small player becomes a star player or just a top six player.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
DYLAN STROME	C	L	6.03	185
NHLP (w/ McDavid)	G	A	P
	28.90	49.13	78.04
NHLP (w/o McDavid)	G	A	P
	33.87	34.87	68.75

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
DAVID LEGWAND	6.02	175	2	39.6	40.4	80.0
ERIC STAAL	6.03	185	2	30.4	38.6	69.0
RICK NASH	6.03	181	1	32.0	35.6	67.6
STEVE BERNIER	6.02	225	16	33.6	33.9	67.5

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BRETT MACLEAN	6.02	197	32	34.0	35.1	69.1

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MICHAEL DAL COLLE	6.02	171	5	29.3	41.1	70.4
MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO	6.02	191	12	31.2	36.2	67.4

Average Pick: 9.4

Top 10 Picks: 4

1^st Round Picks: 6/7 (85.7%)

2^nd Round Picks: 1/7 (14.3%)

When I take Strome’s numbers for the entire year, the only players over 6’2 who was comparable is David Legwand. However, with Strome we know that McDavid has a considerable effect on his scoring. Though they do not play on the same line at even strength, it gives Strome the easier match ups and him and McDavid do team up on the PP. When we use Strome’s scoring in the 20 games McDavid missed, his production went down over 20%. Despite that, Strome still put up incredible production without McDavid as his comparables that were top 5 picks are Eric Staal, Rick Nash and Michael Dal Colle.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
TRAVIS KONECNY	C	R	5.10	175
NHLP	G	A	P
	25.76	35.44	61.20

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MIKKEL BOEDKER	5.11	201	8	23.88	38.08	61.97
BRENDAN GALLAGHER	5.09	175	147	31.39	29.03	60.42
SEAN AVERY	5.10	188	ND	12.43	47.50	59.92

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
DALE MITCHELL	5.09	200	74	31.87	29.63	61.51

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BRAYDEN POINT	5.10	160	79	24.08	38.60	62.68
ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV	5.10	172	40	27.94	34.35	62.29
NICOLAS CORBEIL	5.11	172	88	24.47	37.57	62.04
JOSH HO SANG	5.11	166	28	23.20	38.15	61.34
SVEN BAERTSCHI	5.11	187	13	23.51	37.46	60.97
HUNTER SHINKARUK	5.11	179	24	26.86	33.15	60.01

Average Pick: 55.7

Top 10 Picks: 1

1st Round Picks: 4/10 (40.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 1/10 (10.0%)

3rd Round Picks: 3/10 (30.0%)

4th Round Picks: 0/10 (0.0%)

5th Round Picks: 1/10 (10.0%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/10 (10.0%)

Comparables for Konecny range from a top 10 pick in Boedker to an undrafted Sean Avery. To use as comparables for Konecny let us focus on just the players taken in the first round as Konecny appears to be a consensus first round choice. Those players are Boedker, Ho Sang, Baertschi and Shinkaruk and range from a 8^th to a 28^th overall choice, which is where we should be looking at when ranking Konecny.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
DANTE SALITURO	C	R	5.08	178
NHLP	G	A	P
	28.05	30.80	58.85

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
SEAN AVERY	5.10	188	ND	12.43	47.50	59.92
TYLER ENNIS	5.09	164	26	27.64	32.03	59.67
GILBERT BRULE	5.10	180	6	26.28	32.83	59.11

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
STEFAN LEGEIN	5.10	185	37	34.27	23.75	58.02
PETR VRANA	5.10	184	42	24.01	33.38	57.38

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
DANIEL AUDETTE	5.09	188	147	17.58	41.25	58.83
JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU	5.09	171	96	24.40	33.60	58.00
JAYCE HAWRYLUK	5.10	190	32	22.09	35.63	57.72

Average Pick: 55.1

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 2/8 (25.0%)

2nd Round Picks: 3/8 (37.5%)

3rd Round Picks: 0/8 (0.0%)

4th Round Picks: 1/8 (12.5%)

5th Round Picks: 1/8 (12.5%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/8 (12.5%)

Salituro is a player that is hard to place as the number of 5’8 forwards, that go on to play 100+ NHL games, are very rare. That being said it is tough to pass on a player that put up similar numbers to Tyler Ennis and Gilbert Brule. However, the buzz around Salituro is not what it was for either Ennis or Brule and he may end up going more the way of Audette and Pageau, being a 4^th round or later pick. Salituro is the type of player that likely goes later than he should.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
BLAKE SPEERS	RW	R	5.11	181
NHLP	G	A	P
	19.86	35.32	55.18

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY	6.00	216	42	27.54	28.68	56.22
DAVE BOLLAND	6.00	185	32	27.66	28.27	55.93
CHRIS KELLY	6.00	177	94	24.17	31.59	55.76
CLARKE MACARTHUR	6.00	180	74	18.66	37.02	55.68
TIM BRENT	6.00	180	37	18.50	36.99	55.49
SCOTT GOMEZ	5.11	185	27	13.28	42.02	55.29

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
NORM MILLEY	6.00	195	47	24.45	31.39	55.84
RUSLAN BASHKIROV	6.00	184	60	24.62	30.72	55.34
MAXIME TANGUAY	5.11	174	69	22.06	33.09	55.14
TYLER REDENBACH	6.00	195	77	18.57	36.43	55.00
MAXIME GRATCHEV	5.11	198	106	23.39	30.97	54.36
ROMAN BASHKIROV	5.10	166	ND	27.50	26.84	54.34
MICHAL REPIK	5.11	184	40	23.87	30.47	54.34

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
DANIEL CATENACCI	5.10	191	77	20.67	35.64	56.31
LINDEN VEY	6.00	181	96	18.92	36.67	55.60
ALEX HUTCHINGS	5.10	179	93	27.25	28.11	55.36
MORGAN KLIMCHUK	6.00	185	28	28.14	27.38	55.52
JOEY HISHON	5.10	175	17	22.25	33.00	55.24
VINCENT DUNN	5.11	186	138	24.64	29.95	54.59
ANTHONY DUCLAIR	5.11	191	80	21.61	32.62	54.22
VINCENT TROCHECK	6.00	190	64	24.12	30.01	54.13
MARC-OLIVIER ROY	6.00	185	56	21.61	32.42	54.04
OLIVER BJORKSTRAND	6.00	168	89	25.52	28.50	54.02

Average Pick: 65.6

Top 10 Picks: 0

1^st Round Picks: 3/23 (13.4%)

2nd Round Picks: 7/23 (30.4%)

3rd Round Picks: 7/23 (30.4%)

4th Round Picks: 4/23 (17.4%)

5th Round Picks: 1/23 (4.3%)

Undrafted Picks: 1/23 (4.3%)

With a deep draft, there will be varying opinions on where a player will be drafted and Speers falls into that category of where he could be anything from a late 1^st to a 3^rd round pick. The most likely scenario is for him to be a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick as they make up over 60% of the comparable players for Speers. The type of player that becomes successful in this range is typically a strong two-way player like Bolland, Kelly and MacArthur.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
LAWSON CROUSE	LW	L	6.04	215
NHLP	G	A	P
	31.11	22.34	53.46

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MANNY MALHOTRA	6.02	205	7	19.90	34.68	54.57
ANDREW LADD	6.02	202	4	21.11	33.43	54.55
ANTHONY STEWART	6.02	228	25	24.74	29.77	54.50
WOJTEK WOLSKI	6.03	202	21	23.79	30.51	54.29
RYAN GETZLAF	6.04	210	19	23.69	29.82	53.51
ZACK KASSIAN	6.03	215	13	18.41	34.86	53.27
PETER HOLLAND	6.02	198	15	24.46	28.37	52.84
KRIS BEECH	6.03	185	7	20.58	32.25	52.83

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
GREG NEMISZ	6.04	200	25	27.64	27.07	54.71
BRAD RALPH	6.02	198	53	23.40	30.90	54.30
KIEL MCLEOD	6.05	210	53	29.79	23.49	53.28
STEVEN SHIPLEY	6.03	210	98	19.77	33.39	53.16
MICHAEL HENRICH	6.04	214	13	33.50	19.33	52.83
MIKHAIL STEFANOVICH	6.02	202	98	25.94	26.86	52.80
PETR TATICEK	6.02	180	9	18.11	34.37	52.47
MAXIME SAUVE	6.02	184	47	21.20	31.02	52.22
RANDY COPLEY	6.02	215	40	23.19	29.03	52.22
ADAM HENRICH	6.04	216	60	27.30	24.85	52.15

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
QUINTON HOWDEN	6.03	183	25	23.21	30.53	53.74
BRENDAN GAUNCE	6.02	215	26	22.31	31.40	53.70
NICK SORENSON	6.02	183	45	25.13	28.43	53.56
AUSTIN WATSON	6.03	187	18	20.36	33.16	53.52
NICKLAS JENSEN	6.03	187	29	29.60	23.81	53.42
FREDERIK GAUTHIER	6.04	215	21	18.98	33.91	52.89

Average Pick: 32.1

Top 10 Picks: 4

1^st Round Picks: 16/24 (66.7%)

2nd Round Picks: 6/24 (25.0%)

3rd Round Picks: 0/24 (0.0%)

4th Round Picks: 2/24 (8.3%)

Crouse is a player that is on almost every top 10 ranking out there. Other top 10 picks that put up similar scoring is Malhotra, Ladd, Beech and Taticek. The best player out of the group is Ladd but these players demonstrate that it is not a sure bet Crouse will be a top scorer in the NHL. One could make a case that Getzlaf is also a comparable in this range but I see Getzlaf as an outlier in the group and not the norm. More likely Crouse has 2^nd line upside and his size is being overvalued by the scouts.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
NIKITA KOROSTELEV	RW	R	6.01	195
NHLP	G	A	P
	25.12	26.68	51.80

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
PETER HOLLAND	6.02	198	15	24.46	28.37	52.84
JAMIE MCGINN	6.00	200	36	24.53	28.26	52.79
ALEXANDER BURMISTROV	6.00	170	8	20.85	31.56	52.41
DANIEL PAILLE	6.01	195	20	26.49	25.62	52.11
COLBY ARMSTRONG	6.02	174	21	24.89	26.50	51.39
NICK FOLIGNO	6.00	195	28	17.81	33.41	51.22
CODY EAKIN	6.00	189	85	27.48	23.49	50.97

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
MITCH WAHL	6.00	200	48	17.06	35.97	53.02
KENNDAL MCARDLE	6.00	205	20	25.88	27.04	52.92
MIKHAIL STEFANOVICH	6.02	202	98	25.94	26.86	52.80
PETR TATICEK	6.02	180	9	18.11	34.37	52.47
JASON JASPERS	6.00	180	71	24.54	27.69	52.23
MAXIME SAUVE	6.02	184	47	21.20	31.02	52.22
RANDY COPLEY	6.02	215	40	23.19	29.03	52.22
SLAVA TRUKHNO	6.01	203	120	22.10	29.82	51.92
RYAN JARDINE	6.01	190	89	23.61	28.28	51.89
PATRICE CORMIER	6.02	215	54	23.72	27.96	51.68
NICOLAS DESCHAMPS	6.00	173	35	19.89	31.66	51.55
JONATHAN FILEWICH	6.02	200	70	25.21	26.25	51.46
JARED AULIN	6.00	181	47	15.75	35.65	51.40
BEN MAXWELL	6.01	190	49	23.71	27.61	51.32
TOMAS KURKA	6.00	180	32	28.94	22.19	51.14
RYAN GARLOCK	6.01	202	45	20.61	30.46	51.07
NICK PALMIERI	6.02	215	79	26.77	23.75	50.52

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
TIM BOZON	6.01	199	64	28.56	24.17	52.73
CONNER BLEACKLEY	6.01	195	23	22.32	30.17	52.50
VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV	6.00	175	27	22.18	29.60	51.78
LAURENT DUAPHIN	6.00	180	39	22.82	28.58	51.39
ERIC CORNEL	6.02	184	44	22.29	28.93	51.22
LANDON FERRARO	6.00	170	32	35.69	15.50	51.18
TOMAS JURCO	6.02	193	35	25.71	25.38	51.10
RICKARD RAKELL	6.01	195	30	21.61	29.42	51.03
MICHAEL LATTA	6.00	213	72	19.41	31.53	50.94
SCOTT LAUGHTON	6.01	190	20	20.14	30.56	50.70

Average Pick: 45.6

Top 10 Picks: 2

1^st Round Picks: 11/34 (32.3%)

2nd Round Picks: 14/34 (41.2%)

3rd Round Picks: 7/34 (20.6%)

4th Round Picks: 2/34 (5.9%)

With over 90% of the comparables picked in the first three rounds of the draft, it is very likely Korostelev is as well. He is a player that you do not see in the top 30 rankings so he is likely a 2^nd or 3^rd round choice. What is interesting with Korostelev’s list of comparables is that twice as many players that are busts (17) than there are players with over 100+ games (7). In addition, of those seven players that played 100+ games, five of them were 1^st round picks. With odds like that, unless a player is getting serious love from the scouting rankings, it may be best to use a 3^rd round pick on a player that falls within this range.

 

NAME	POS	ST	HT	WT
PAVEL ZACHA	C	L	6.03	210
NHLP	G	A	P
	26.09	24.85	50.94

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (100+ NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
BENOIT POULIOT	6.03	190	4	23.71	27.88	51.59
COLBY ARMSTRONG	6.02	174	21	24.89	26.50	51.39
ERIC FEHR	6.04	200	18	22.91	27.61	50.52
BRANDON SAAD	6.03	206	43	21.18	28.93	50.11

COMPARABLE PLAYERS (<100 NHL GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
ADAM HENRICH	6.04	216	60	27.30	24.85	52.15
PATRICE CORMIER	6.02	215	54	23.72	27.96	51.68
JARED STAAL	6.04	210	49	22.14	29.52	51.66
JONATHAN FILEWICH	6.02	200	70	25.21	26.25	51.46
KYLE BEACH	6.03	210	11	24.11	26.80	50.91
NICK PALMIERI	6.02	215	79	26.77	23.75	50.52
CHARLIE STEPHENS	6.03	210	31	21.91	28.18	50.09

COMPARABLE PLAYERS DRAFTED 2009-2014(<100 GAMES)

NAME	HT	WT	#	G	A	P
RADEK FAKSA	6.03	213	13	23.01	28.96	51.97
BRETT RITCHIE	6.04	215	44	26.61	25.12	51.72
ERIC CORNEL	6.02	184	44	22.29	28.93	51.22
TOMAS JURCO	6.02	193	35	25.71	25.38	51.10
RYAN MARTINDALE	6.04	204	61	16.31	33.83	50.14
TAYLOR BECK	6.02	203	70	19.69	30.30	49.99
JAKUB CULEK	6.04	195	76	17.22	32.70	49.92

Average Pick: 43.5

Top 10 Picks: 1

1^st Round Picks: 5/18 (27.8%)

2nd Round Picks: 8/18 (44.4%)

3rd Round Picks: 5/18 (27.8%)

Zacha is similar to Crouse in that despite not putting up large numbers, he is considered a consensus top 15 pick and is on many top 10 lists. Therefore, if we focus on just the comparable players that were taken in the first round they are Benoit Pouliot, Colby Armstrong, Eric Fehr, Kyle Beach and Radek Faksa. Therefore, when drafting Zacha you are drafting a big center with most likely 2^nd line upside.

 

CONCLUSION

As a rule, all players that project to have 50+ point potential for an 82 game season should be in the running as a top 100 pick. After analysing the nine players from the OHL that fall in this category, they all remain in the running to make my final top 100 rankings. McDavid is all but guaranteed #1, while Marner and Strome are both deserving of being top 10 picks. However, I have serious doubts that using a high pick on Crouse or Zacha is a wise decision and that there are more skilled players worth taking in the top 10. Konecny is the 6^th player from the OHL that will likely be a 1^st round choice. This would mean that 20% of the first round would be made up of OHL forwards. When it comes to top end talent, this is a great year for them. As for Korostelev and Speers, they are likely 2^nd or 3^rd round choices. Salituro is the only player from these nine that may not end up as a top 100 pick due to his size and could be a steal in the 4^th round or later.